The Z Files: Normalizing the ATC Pitching Projections

This article is part of our DFS MLB series.

Top DFS Pitching and Team Stacking Strategies for DraftKings

In this article, I’m going to take a deeper dive into pitching and team stacking options. Let’s take a look at our optimizer’s rankings of the pitchers for the DraftKings main slate, sorted by projected fantasy points.

We have a couple of true ace pitchers taking the mound tonight in Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb, with the latter being one of the pitchers we’ve highlighted. Webb is expected to be the highest rostered pitcher in GPPs tonight with a much improved strikeout rate this year in addition to being in his pitcher friendly home park. You could certainly go ahead and roster both pitchers in this game. 

We’ve also highlighted David Festa, Michael Lorenzen and Kumar Rocker in our optimizer. Rocker is an option if you want to go with a contrarian value play as he showed his potential with 26.8 DK points in his last start, but he’s best suited for GPPs. Andrew Heaney also ranks well in all the categories below and is a viable option in the mid-tier in the midst of a nice year thus far in his first season with the Pirates. 

Here’s how each pitcher ranks in key categories (stats are from 2025 season only):

*Ben Casparius and Bryse Wilson are not included as both will be on limited pitch counts

Pitcher Fantasy Points FIP K% Opponent K%
Freddy Peralta 1 6 3 4
David Festa 2 2 4 5
Logan Webb 3 1 1 8
Andrew Heaney 4 4 7 2
Bowden Francis 5 13 8 7
Matthew Boyd 6 7 9 6
Michael Lorenzen 7 8 11 1
Eduardo Rodriguez 8 3 2 9
Taj Bradley 9 11 5 12
Kumar Rocker 10 9 12 14
JP Sears 11 10 10 10
Jack Kochanowicz 12 14 14 3
Ryan Gusto 13 5 6 13
German Marquez 14 12 13 11

Analyzing Team Stack Rankings for Maximum DFS Impact

Here is how each team ranks in implied runs, home run rate and how popular we expect each team stack to be in GPPs:

Team  Implied Runs HR Rate Stack Popularity
Twins 6.2 12 High
Royals 5.7 16 High
Diamondbacks 5.6 5 Medium
Angels 5.2 2 Medium
Cubs 5.1 3 Medium
Athletics 5.0 4 Low
Rangers 4.9 6 High
Dodgers 4.9 1 High
Astros 4.5 10 Medium
Blue Jays 4.5 15 High
Pirates 4.2 13 Medium
Giants 3.8 7 Low
Rays 3.8 9 Medium
Rockies 3.2 14 Low
Brewers 3.0 8 Low
White Sox 2.7 11 Low

My primary team stack targets

Royals vs. RHP German Marquez (4.93 FIP) Key Pieces: Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt, Drew Waters

Twins vs. RHP Bryse Wilson (6.78 FIP, career 1.9 HR/9) Key Pieces: Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Ty France

Astros vs. RHP Bowden Francis (5.42 FIP, career 1.5 HR/9) Key Pieces: Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez

Rangers vs. LHP JP Sears (4.77 career FIP, 1.5 HR/9) Key Pieces: Jake Burger, Marcus Semien, Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung

Key Matchups and Batter vs. Pitcher Insights for DFS Success

Notable hitter matchups against the opposing starter today:

  • Eugenio Suarez: 2-for-5, 2 HR; .400 BA, 2.000 OPS
  • Marcus Semien: 6-for-22, 2 HR; .273 BA, .905 OPS
  • Yandy Diaz: 8-for 20; .400 BA, .928 OPS
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of WagerKey.

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