We return to a split schedule on Saturday with baseball all day. The first slate is at 2:20 p.m. EDT and includes six games while the main one contains seven matchups and begins at 7:10 p.m. EDT, with the latter one being the focus of this article.
Pitchers
It’s an excellent evening for pitching with eight of the 14 scheduled starters listing no lower than a 25 percent strikeout rate, so matchups and salary will be key tiebreakers. At the top of the pool, Bryan Woo ($10,200) stands out thanks to drawing an Angels lineup that’s fanned at a 28.6 percent rate the last month alongside a .292 wOBA.
Moving down, Dylan Cease ($8,800) and Jacob Misiorowski ($8,700) are both inconsistent yet intriguing. Cease has stabilized his performance of late (17.0 DK points per game from his last 10 starts) and gets the Rockies away from Coors Field. Misiorowski was surprisingly allowed to work 7.0 innings during his last outing and boasts 22 Ks across 16.1 frames.
It’s a tough matchup, but Clayton Kershaw ($7,200) is misvalued against the Giants as he’s recorded at least 18 DK points in five of his last seven appearances. Ryne Nelson ($7,000) is in a similar salary range while facing the Twins.
Last up is Bryce Elder ($5,500). His results have been strong, though he’s been inconsistent throughout his career where things can turn quickly. A matchup against the Astros isn’t daunting with their .285 wOBA the last 30 days.
See which projected starters are going and when with WagerKey’s Probable Pitchers page!
Top Hitters
There aren’t many obvious pitchers to pick on, yet there are some favorable hitting environments. Sutter Health Field in Sacramento is undoubtedly the best, so target bats from Reds-A’s. Austin Hays ($3,800) and TJ Friedl ($3,700) have both performed well in their last 10 games and carry reasonable salaries, which should help fit in some top pitchers.
Jackson Chourio ($4,900) has been underwhelming this season, but has produced double-digit DK points from four of his last five outings. Sonny Gray has struggled during his last five starts by posting a 6.35 ERA while allowing 1.91 HR/9.
Value Bats
The A’s roster isn’t a great lineup to go value hunting as it’s top-heavy with plenty of young talent. Lawrence Butler ($3,600) has excelled through his last 10 appearances (8.6 DK average) while doing well at home overall (8.2 average). A matchup against Hunter Greene is tough, but the hitting environment and salary are right.
Jake Meyers ($3,600) is back in action after a two-month absence while starting five of six games. He’s also averaging 7.2 DK points during that span and still checks in at a lower salary. Adding Meyers is a way to target Bryce Elder, though other Houston hitters are worth considering.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Rockies (Bradley Blalock): Fernando Tatis ($5,700), Manny Machado ($5,300), Jackson Merrill ($4,300)
There’s a lot of solid pitchers on Saturday, so the subpar ones stand out more than usual. That’s the case with Blalock. Even away from Coors, he’s posted a 4.37 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The Padres have been mediocre the last month, though are in a favorable position to produce.
Mariners vs. Angels (Mitch Farris): Randy Arozarena ($5,000), Julio Rodriguez ($5,200), Josh Naylor ($4,700)
Farris has looked solid during his two big-league starts having only given up three earned runs through 11 innings, yet his 7:3 K:BB is mediocre while also conceding two homers. The Mariners have registered a .192 ISO the last 30 days – fourth-highest in the league – so they should be able to put up runs in bunches. The front of the order is also relatively cheap, which helps given the elevated pitching salaries.
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