This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Sunday Night Baseball Bets: Expert Props for Red Sox vs Cardinals
On Sunday Night Baseball tonight, not only do the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox wrap up their three-game weekend series, they’ll also be concluding the first doubleheader of the 2025 season. Boston squeaked out the first game with a 5-4 victory and will be vying for a series sweep.
Miles Mikolas gets the ball for the Cardinals as they hope to stop the current skid. For the Red Sox, it’s Hunter Dobbins drawing the start and he’ll be making his Major League debut. He is the focus of our player prop bet in this game.
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Dobbins is 25 years old and was drafted in the eighth round of the 2021 draft. He showcased some fine results in the minor leagues, like his season last year when he posted a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worchester. At the same time, Dobbins also posted a 1.26 WHIP, as he was allowing a higher number of baserunners.
I was hoping to target his outs prop for his debut – nationally-televised on ESPN, no less – but since no sportsbooks have any market for that, we’ll be eyeing his number of strikeouts instead.
Of his 25 starts in the minors last year, 21 of those came in Double-A – and in those 105 innings of work, Dobbins failed to strike out one batter inning. He finished with 98 Ks, to be specific.
The Texas Tech product does throw hard – he reached 99 mph in a Triple-A start recently – but that doesn’t always lead to an inflation in strikeouts. And with his first assignment being against a team like the Cardinals that tends to put the ball in play, we’ll be trying to profit on his under.
The number everywhere is 3.5 and one additional advantage into going below that is that it’s unknown how long Dobbins will go. Given the quality of the opponent, it’s more likely than not that he won’t exceed even four innings – and if he makes it that far, I don’t believe he’ll get to four punchouts.
St. Louis is tied for the fourth fewest strikeouts as a team thus far with 67 in their eight games. This has been a trademark of their offense for awhile, having been in the bottom third of Major League Baseball in Ks in each of the past five seasons.
It’s highly unlikely that Dobbins is given a long leash. Given the nerves that he’ll likely experience when the bright lights are on, he probably won’t last beyond a few innings. In the process, he won’t be racking up enough strikeouts to spoil this proposition.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
